The burden of skeletal-related events in four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

AIM: Skeletal-related events (SREs) are major bone complications that frequently occur in patients with solid tumors (ST) and bone metastases, and in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). SREs include pathological fracture, spinal cord compression, radiation to bone, and surgery to bone. Limited data are available regarding the burden of SREs in Latin America. We built an economic model to quantify the current and future economic burden of SREs among adults in four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. METHODS: A comprehensive literature review with a systematic search strategy was conducted to parameterize the economic burden of illness (BOI) model. Economic analyses were conducted using a prevalence-based model. Aggregate SRE costs obtained from country-specific sources were used. We also included patient productivity losses. Costs were expressed in 2020 USD for the total annual burden, annual burden per 1,000 at risk, and projected five-year burden. RESULTS: The estimated total number of SREs was 251,503 in 2020, amounting to a total annual cost of USD 1.4 billion. The total projected five-year cost was USD 6.9 billion. Annual costs were highest in Brazil (USD 779.1 million), followed by Mexico (USD 281.8 million), Argentina (USD 174.6 million), and Colombia (USD 120.1 million). The average financial burden per 1,000 at risk was greatest in Brazil (USD 3.6 million), followed by Mexico (USD 3.4 million), Colombia (USD 2.9 million), and Argentina (USD 2.7 million). CONCLUSION: Despite recommendations by medical societies for the use of bone-targeted agents in patients with solid tumors and bone metastasis or with multiple myeloma and bone lesions, a large proportion of patients at risk of experiencing SREs are not treated. Early detection of bone metastases and SREs and the use of the most effective preventative treatments are needed to decrease the clinical and economic burden of SREs in Latin America.

The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, smoking tobacco causes 7 million deaths annually, and this toll is expected to increase, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Latin America, smoking is a leading risk factor for death and disability, contributes to poverty, and imposes an economic burden on health systems. Despite being one of the most effective measures to reduce smoking, tobacco taxation is underused and cigarettes are more affordable in Latin America than in other regions. Our aim was to estimate the tobacco-attributable burden on mortality, disease incidence, quality of life lost, and medical costs in 12 Latin American countries, and the expected health and economic effects of increasing tobacco taxes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, medical costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with the most common tobacco-related diseases in 12 countries in Latin America. Data inputs were obtained through a literature review, vital statistics, and hospital databases from each country: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The main outcomes of the model are life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, disease events, hospitalisations, disease incidence, disease cost, and healthy years of life lost. We estimated direct medical costs for each tobacco-related disease included in the model using a common costing methodology for each country. The disease burden was estimated as the difference in disease events, deaths, and associated costs between the results predicted by the model for current smoking prevalence and a hypothetical cohort of people in each country who had never smoked. The model estimates the health and financial effects of a price increase of cigarettes through taxes, in terms of disease and health-care costs averted, and increased tax revenues. FINDINGS: In the 12 Latin American countries analysed, we estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 345 000 (12%) of the total 2 860 921 adult deaths, 2·21 million disease events, 8·77 million healthy years of life lost, and $26·9 billion in direct medical costs annually. Health-care costs attributable to smoking were estimated to represent 6·9% of the health budgets of these countries, equivalent to 0·6% of their gross domestic product. Tax revenues from cigarette sales cover 36·0% of the estimated health expenditures caused by smoking. We estimated that a 50% increase in cigarette price through taxation would avert more than 300 000 deaths, 1·3 million disease events, gain 9 million healthy life-years, and save $26·7 billion in health-care costs in the next 10 years, with a total economic benefit of $43·7 billion. INTERPRETATION: Smoking represents a substantial health and economic burden in these 12 countries of Latin America. Tobacco tax increases could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce health-care spending, and increase tax revenues, resulting in large net economic benefits. FUNDING: International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso de tabaco en Colombia y potenciales beneficios sanitarios y económicos del aumento del precio del cigarrillo mediante impuestos / Disease burden attributable to smoking in Colombia and potential economic and health benefits of price increase through taxes

Resumen Objetivo: estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Colombia y evaluar el potencial efecto sanitario y económico del aumento de precio en los cigarrillos mediante impuestos. Materiales y métodos: se diseñó un modelo de simulación de Monte Cario de primer orden que incorporó la historia natural, los costos y la calidad de vida de enfermedades relacionadas con el consumo de tabaco en adultos. Se estimó el impacto en la prevalencia de tabaquismo y en la recaudación de diferentes escenarios de aumento de precio a través de impuestos. Resultados: en Colombia cada año mueren 32.088 personas como consecuencia del consumo de cigarrillo y pueden atribuírsele los siguientes porcentajes: el 16% de las muertes cardiovasculares, el 13% de las producidas por accidentes cerebrovasculares, el 77% de las muertes ocasionadas por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el 80% de las muertes por cáncer de pulmón. Las enfermedades relacionadas con el cigarrillo representan un costo directo anual al sistema de salud de más de 4,5 billones de pesos, mientras la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas logra cubrir un 10% de este gasto. Un aumento en el precio de los cigarrillos del 50% podría evitar, en un horizonte de 10 años, más de 45.000 muertes y generar recursos por 8 billones por ahorro en gastos sanitarios y aumento de recaudación. Conclusiones: la carga de enfermedad y el costo para el sistema de salud asociados al consumo de tabaco son muy elevados en Colombia. Un aumento del precio de los cigarrillos a través de los impuestos tendría importantes beneficios tanto sanitarios como económicos.

Abstract Objective: to estimate the burden of disease associated with tobacco consumption in Colombia and to evaluate the potential health and economic effect of the price increase in cigarettes through taxes. Materials and methods: to estimate the burden of disease, a first-order Monte Carlo simulation model was designed that incorporated the natural history, costs and quality of life of diseases related to tobacco consumption in adults. A tax model was designed to calculate the impact on the prevalence of smoking and on the collection of different price increase scenarios. Results: according to the proposed model, it can be estimated that in Colombia 26,464 people die every year as a result of cigarette smoking. 13% of cardiovascular deaths, 13% of those caused by strokes, 77% of deaths caused by chronic lung disease and 81 % of deaths from lung cancer can be attributed to their consumption. The diseases related to cigarettes in Colombia represent a direct annual cost of more than 4 billion pesos, while the tax collection from the sale of cigarettes barely covers 10% of this expense. An increase in the price of cigarettes of 50% could prevent more than 30,000 deaths in ten years and generate resources for 7.9 billion savings in health spending and increased collection. Conclusions: the burden of disease and the cost to the health system associated with tobacco use are very high in Colombia. An increase in the price of cigarettes through taxes would have important health and economic benefits for Colombia.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso del tabaco en Paraguay y potencial impacto sanitario y económico del aumento del precio a través de impuestos / Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Paraguay, and potential health and financial impact of increasing prices through taxing

RESUMEN Objetivos. Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Paraguay y evaluar el potencial efecto económico y sanitario del aumento de precio mediante impuestos. Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un modelo de microsimulación de Monte Carlo que incorporó la historia natural, costos y calidad de vida de enfermedades asociadas al tabaquismo para el 2015. Asimismo, se estimó el impacto en varios escenarios de aumento de impuestos sobre la prevalencia de tabaquismo y la recaudación fiscal. Resultados. 3354 personas mueren al año en Paraguay por consecuencia del tabaquismo. El 19 % de las muertes son por enfermedad isquémica cardíaca, el 15 % por accidentes cerebrovasculares. El 77 % de las muertes por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el 83 % de cáncer de pulmón son atribuibles al tabaquismo. Estas enfermedades en Paraguay representan un costo médico directo anual de más de 1,5 x 106 millones de guaraníes, mientras la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas llega a cubrir un 20 % de este gasto. Un aumento en el precio de los cigarrillos del 50 % vía impuestos, podría llevar a evitar 2507 muertes en diez años y generar recursos por 2,4 x 106 millones por ahorro en gastos sanitarios y aumento de recaudación. Conclusiones. El costo y la carga de enfermedad asociado al consumo de tabaco en el sistema de salud es elevado en Paraguay. Un aumento del precio de los cigarrillos a través de los impuestos tendría importantes beneficios sanitarios y podría compensar parcialmente los costos sanitarios.

ABSTRACT Objectives . To consider the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption in Paraguay and to evaluate the potential economic and health effect of price increase through taxes. Materials and Methods . A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed incorporating natural history, costs, and quality of life of diseases associated to smoking for 2015. Also, several scenarios were considered for the impact of tax raises on the prevalence of smoking and fiscal collection. Results . In Paraguay, 3,354 people die every year as a consequence of smoking. Nineteen percent of deaths are due to cardiac ischemia, 15% due to stroke. 77% of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 83% of lung cancer can be attributed to smoking. These diseases in Paraguay represent an annual direct medical cost of more than 1.5 trillion PYG, while the tax collection from cigarette sales barely covers 20% of this expense. A 50% increase in the price of cigarettes via taxes could avoid 2507 deaths in ten years and generate resources by 2.4 trillion in savings in health expenses and tax of collection. Conclusions . The cost and the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption is high in the health system in Paraguay. An increase in cigarette price through taxes could have significant health benefits and could offset health costs in part.

Measuring the Benefits of Healthcare: DALYs and QALYs - Does the Choice of Measure Matter? A Case Study of Two Preventive Interventions.

BACKGROUND: The measurement of health benefits is a key issue in health economic evaluations. There is very scarce empirical literature exploring the differences of using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as benefit metrics and their potential impact in decision-making. METHODS: Two previously published models delivering outputs in QALYs, were adapted to estimate DALYs: a Markov model for human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, and a pneumococcal vaccination deterministic model (PNEUMO). Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom studies were used, where local EQ-5D social value weights were available to provide local QALY weights. A primary study with descriptive vignettes was done (n = 73) to obtain EQ-5D data for all health states included in both models. Several scenario analyses were carried-out to evaluate the relative importance of using different metrics (DALYS or QALYs) to estimate health benefits on these economic evaluations. RESULTS: QALY gains were larger than DALYs avoided in all countries for HPV, leading to more favorable decisions using the former. With discounting and age-weighting - scenario with greatest differences in all countries - incremental DALYs avoided represented the 75%, 68%, and 43% of the QALYs gained in Argentina, Chile, and United Kingdom respectively. Differences using QALYs or DALYs were less consistent and sometimes in the opposite direction for PNEUMO. These differences, similar to other widely used assumptions, could directly influence decision-making using usual gross domestic products (GDPs) per capita per DALY or QALY thresholds. CONCLUSION: We did not find evidence that contradicts current practice of many researchers and decision-makers of using QALYs or DALYs interchangeably. Differences attributed to the choice of metric could influence final decisions, but similarly to other frequently used assumptions.

[Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Paraguay, and potential health and financial impact of increasing prices through taxing]. / Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso del tabaco en Paraguay y potencial impacto sanitario y económico del aumento del precio a través de impuestos.

OBJECTIVES: To consider the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption in Paraguay and to evaluate the potential economic and health effect of price increase through taxes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed incorporating natural history, costs, and quality of life of diseases associated to smoking for 2015. Also, several scenarios were considered for the impact of tax raises on the prevalence of smoking and fiscal collection. RESULTS: In Paraguay, 3,354 people die every year as a consequence of smoking. Nineteen percent of deaths are due to cardiac ischemia, 15% due to stroke. 77% of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 83% of lung cancer can be attributed to smoking. These diseases in Paraguay represent an annual direct medical cost of more than 1.5 trillion PYG, while the tax collection from cigarette sales barely covers 20% of this expense. A 50% increase in the price of cigarettes via taxes could avoid 2507 deaths in ten years and generate resources by 2.4 trillion in savings in health expenses and tax of collection. CONCLUSIONS: The cost and the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption is high in the health system in Paraguay. An increase in cigarette price through taxes could have significant health benefits and could offset health costs in part.

OBJETIVOS.: Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Paraguay y evaluar el potencial efecto económico y sanitario del aumento de precio mediante impuestos. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS.: Se diseñó un modelo de microsimulación de Monte Carlo que incorporó la historia natural, costos y calidad de vida de enfermedades asociadas al tabaquismo para el 2015. Asimismo, se estimó el impacto en varios escenarios de aumento de impuestos sobre la prevalencia de tabaquismo y la recaudación fiscal. RESULTADOS.: 3354 personas mueren al año en Paraguay por consecuencia del tabaquismo. El 19 % de las muertes son por enfermedad isquémica cardíaca, el 15 % por accidentes cerebrovasculares. El 77 % de las muertes por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el 83 % de cáncer de pulmón son atribuibles al tabaquismo. Estas enfermedades en Paraguay representan un costo médico directo anual de más de 1,5 x 106 millones de guaraníes, mientras la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas llega a cubrir un 20 % de este gasto. Un aumento en el precio de los cigarrillos del 50 % vía impuestos, podría llevar a evitar 2507 muertes en diez años y generar recursos por 2,4 x 106 millones por ahorro en gastos sanitarios y aumento de recaudación. CONCLUSIONES.: El costo y la carga de enfermedad asociado al consumo de tabaco en el sistema de salud es elevado en Paraguay. Un aumento del precio de los cigarrillos a través de los impuestos tendría importantes beneficios sanitarios y podría compensar parcialmente los costos sanitarios.

Evaluación del impacto sanitario del Programa Estaciones Saludables en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina / Health impact assessment of the Program Healthy Centers in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina / Avaliação do impacto na saúde do Programa Estações Saudáveis na Cidade Autônoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

RESUMEN Objetivo Explorar las motivaciones y expectativas de los usuarios del Programa de Estaciones Saludables en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires y evaluar su potencial impacto sanitario. Métodos Se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad (n = 34) y una encuesta autoadministrada (n = 605) a usuarios del programa. Se desarrolló un modelo epidemiológico para estimar el impacto del programa sobre los eventos cardiovasculares y los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD). Resultados Los principales factores motivadores para el uso de las estaciones saludables fueron la accesibilidad geográfica, económica (servicios gratuitos) y la satisfacción con la atención recibida. El 14,4% (intervalos de confianza del 95% [IC95%] 10,3-18,5%) de los usuarios hipertensos y el 24,8% (IC95% 17,6-32,0%) de los diabéticos informó haberse enterado de sus valores alterados en las estaciones saludables. Más de la mitad de los encuestados reportó alguna mejora de conocimientos sobre los beneficios de realizar actividad física y una alimentación saludable; esto fue más frecuente entre los usuarios más jóvenes, de menor nivel educativo, usuarios del sistema público de salud, usuarios de estaciones saludables de la zona sur y los que tenían algún factor de riesgo cardiometabólico (p<0.05). Se estimó que debido a la existencia de estaciones saludables se evitarían 12,5 eventos cardiovasculares y cerebrovasculares por año en la población asistida (4,75 eventos/100 000 personas) y 47,75 AVAD por estas causas. Conclusiones Las estaciones saludables resultan un espacio propicio para la implementación de acciones de promoción de la salud y prevención, contribuyendo en la detección y facilitando el monitoreo de los factores de riesgo, con potencialidad para prevenir eventos cardiovasculares y sus consecuencias.

ABSTRACT Objective To explore the motivations and expectations of the users of the Program for Healthy Centers in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires and to evaluate its potential health impact. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted (n = 34) and a self-administered survey was sent to users of the program (n = 605). An epidemiological model was developed to estimate the impact of the program on cardiovascular events (CVE) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results The main motivating factors for using the healthy centers were geographic and economic accessibility (free services) and satisfaction with the care received. 14.4% (95% CI, 10.3-18.5%) of hypertensive users and 24.8% (95% CI, 17.6-32.0%) of diabetic users reported having learned of their altered values in the healthy center. More than half of the respondents reported some improvement in their knowledge about the benefits of physical activity and healthy eating; this was more frequent among those who were younger, of lower educational level, users of the public health system, users of a healthy center in the South zone and those who had a cardiometabolic risk factor (p<0.05). It was estimated that the healthy centers would prevent 12.5 cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events per year in the assisted population (4.75 events/100 000) and 47.75 DALYs due to these causes. Conclusions The healthy centers are a favorable space for the implementation of health promotion and prevention actions, contributing to the detection of and facilitating the monitoring of risk factors, with a potential to prevent cardiovascular events and its consequences.

RESUMO Objetivo Explorar as motivações e expectativas dos usuários do Programa Estações Saudáveis na Cidade Autônoma de Buenos Aires e avaliar seu impacto potencial na saúde. Métodos Foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade (n = 34) e uma pesquisa auto-administrada (n = 605) a usuários do programa. Um modelo epidemiológico foi desenvolvido para estimar o impacto do programa em eventos cardiovasculares e anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (DALY). Resultados Os principais fatores motivadores para o uso do estações saudáveis foram a acessibilidade geográfica, econômica (serviços gratuitos) e a satisfação com o atendimento recebido. 14,4% (intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%] 10,3-18,5%) de usuários hipertensos e 24,8% (IC95% 17,6-32,0%) dos diabéticos relataram ter aprendido sobre seus valores alterados na estação saudável. Mais da metade dos entrevistados relataram alguma melhora no conhecimento sobre os benefícios da atividade física e da alimentação saudável, com maior freqüência entre os mais jovens, de menor escolaridade, usuários do sistema público de saúde, usuários de estações saudáveis na zona sul e aqueles que apresentaram algum fator de risco cardiometabólico (p<0,05). Estimou-se que, devido à existência de estações saudáveis, 12,5 eventos cardiovasculares e cerebrovasculares por ano seriam evitados na população atendida (4,75 eventos/100 000) e 47,75 DALY por essas causas. Conclusões As estações saudáveis são um espaço propício para a implementação de ações de promoção e prevenção da saúde, contribuindo para a detecção e facilitação do monitoramento dos fatores de risco, com potencial para prevenir os eventos cardiovasculares e suas consequências.

Costo-efectividad del rastreo de cáncer colorrectal en provincias argentinas seleccionadas / Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Selected Argentine Provinces

INTRODUCCIÓN: El cáncer colorrectal (CCR) es una de las principales causas de mortalidad en adultos. En Argentina es la segunda entre las neoplasias, y se observan diferencias en la mortalidad entre las distintas provincias. El rastreo de CCR es subutilizado en Argentina, donde el sistema de salud se encuentra fragmentado. OBJETIVOS: Analizar la costo-efectividad (CE) de diversas estrategias de rastreo basadas en el test de sangre oculta en materia fecal inmunohistoquímico (SOMFihq) anual desde distintos subsectores provinciales. MÉTODOS: Se construyó un modelo de Markov, que permitió comparar tres estrategias: rastreo en población de 50 a 74 años, rastreo en población de 50 a 64 años y no rastreo. RESULTADOS: Se encontraron diferencias de costos y variabilidad clínica. El rastreo a población de 50-74 años presentó una razón de CE incremental levemente mayor que el rastreo en población de 50-64 años, con valores inferiores al producto bruto geográfico per cápita. Este resultado se mostró robusto en el análisis de sensibilidad. CONCLUSIONES: Los resultados comparados en siete subsectores de salud regionales de Argentina ­con diferencias epidemiológicas, organizacionales, de capacidad instalada y de recursos, con su variabilidad de práctica clínica y sus diferentes costos­ indican de manera robusta que el rastreo de CCR se mantiene costo-efectivo en diversos escenarios. Analizar la CE de intervenciones sanitarias en Argentina requiere tener en cuenta el contexto local de los diferentes subsectores de salud.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the main causes of mortality in adults. In Argentina it is the second among tumors, and there are differences between province mortality rates. CRC screening is underutilized in Argentina, where there is an important fragmentation of the health care system. OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness (CE) of different screening strategies based on annual immunochemical fecal occult blood test (IFOBT) for different health subsectors in the country. METHODS: A Markov model was developed, which allowed to compare three different strategies: screening population aged 50 to 74 years, screening population aged 50 to 64 years, and no screening. RESULTS: Differences in costs and clinical variability were found. Screening the population aged 50 to 74 years showed a slightly higher incremental CE ratio than screening the population aged 50 to 64, with values lower than per capita gross regional product. This result was robust in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The compared results from seven regional health subsectors in Argentina, with their differences in epidemiology, organization, installed capacity and resources, as well as clinical variability and differences in costs, are robust in showing that CRC screening remains cost-effective under different scenarios. In order to analyze the CE in Argentina, it is necessary to take into account the local context of different health subsectors.

Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. METHODS: A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

[Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Argentina and potential impact of price increases through taxes]. / Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso de tabaco en Argentina y potencial impacto del aumento de precio a través de impuestos.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate burden of disease associated with tobacco use in Argentina and estimate health and economic impacts of cigarette price increases through taxes. METHODS: A microsimulation model was used to quantify smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; pneumonia; and ten cancers. Modeling was done for effect of different price increase scenarios on tobacco use and their impact on health and economics. RESULTS: In Argentina, 44 851 deaths, 20 620 cancer diagnoses, 14 405 strokes, and 68 100 hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking every year. Every year, 998 881 years of life are lost from premature death and disability. The cost of treating tobacco-attributable health problems amounts to 33 billion Argentine pesos (ARS). Tobacco taxes only cover 67.3% of this expense. If Argentina increases cigarettes prices by 50% in the next 10 years, 25 557 deaths, 42 560 cardiovascular events, and 11 222 cancers could be prevented, with an economic benefit of 122 billion ARS from savings on health costs and from increasing tax revenues (1 US$ = 8.8096 ARS). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Argentina. An increase in cigarette taxes could have considerable health and economic benefits.

[Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level]. / Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. METHODS: A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. RESULTS: Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region's countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

Carga de enfermedad por tabaquismo e impacto potencial del incremento de precios de cigarrillos en el Perú / Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru

RESUMEN Objetivos . Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al tabaquismo y evaluar el potencial impacto económico y en salud del aumento de los impuestos a los cigarrillos en el Perú. Materiales y métodos. Mediante un modelo de microsimulación se estimó el impacto en mortalidad, calidad de vida y costos atribuibles al tabaquismo por enfermedad cardiaca y cerebrovascular, enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica, neumonía, cáncer de pulmón y otras nueve neoplasias. Se evaluaron tres escenarios de aumento de impuestos. Resultados . Un total anual de 16 719 muertes, 6926 diagnósticos de cáncer, 7936 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 7548 hospitalizaciones por enfermedad cardiovascular se pueden atribuir al tabaquismo en Perú. Asimismo, se pierden 396 069 años de vida por muerte prematura y discapacidad cada año, y el costo de tratar los problemas de salud ocasionados por el tabaco asciende a 2500 millones de soles (PEN 2015). Actualmente, los impuestos al tabaco llegan a cubrir solamente el 9,1% de dicho gasto. Un incremento del 50% en el precio de los cigarrillos podría evitar 13 391 muertes, 6210 eventos cardiovasculares y 5361 nuevos cánceres en los próximos diez años, y representaría un beneficio económico de 3145 millones (PEN) por ahorro de costos sanitarios y aumento de la recaudación impositiva. Conclusiones . La carga de enfermedad y el costo para el sistema de salud asociados al tabaquismo son elevados en Perú. Incrementar los impuestos al cigarrillo podría derivar en importantes beneficios para el país, tanto sanitarios como económicos.

ABSTRACT Objectives . To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. Materials and methods. A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. Results . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. Conclusions . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional / Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level

RESUMEN Objetivo Estimar los costos médicos directos atribuibles al tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo de microsimulación para cuantificar el impacto económico en enfermedad cardiovascular y cerebrovascular, enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC), neumonía, cáncer de pulmón y otras nueve neoplasias. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de datos epidemiológicos y de costos de los eventos. El modelo se calibró y validó para Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú, países que representan el 78% de la población de América Latina; luego se extrapolaron los resultados a nivel regional. Resultados Cada año el tabaquismo es responsable de 33 576 millones de dólares en costos directos para el sistema de salud. Esto equivale a 0,7% del producto interno bruto (PIB) de la región y a 8,3% del presupuesto sanitario. La enfermedad cardiovascular, la EPOC y el cáncer fueron responsables de 30,3%, 26,9% y 23,7% de este gasto, respectivamente. El costo atribuible al tabaquismo varió entre 0,4% (México y Perú) y 0,9% (Chile) del PIB y entre 5,2% (Brasil) y 12,7% (Bolivia) del gasto en salud. En la región, la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas cubre 37% del gasto sanitario atribuible al tabaquismo (8,1% en Bolivia y 67,3% en Argentina). Conclusiones El tabaquismo es responsable de una importante proporción del gasto sanitario en América Latina, y la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos está lejos de llegar a cubrirlo. La profundización de medidas como el aumento de impuestos al tabaco debería ser seriamente considerada por los países de la región.

ABSTRACT Objective Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. Methods A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America’s population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. Results Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). Conclusions Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region’s countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al uso de tabaco en Argentina y potencial impacto del aumento de precio a través de impuestos / Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Argentina and potential impact of price increases through taxes

RESUMEN Objetivo Evaluar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Argentina y estimar el impacto sanitario y económico de aumentos de precio en los cigarrillos a través de impuestos. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo de microsimulación para cuantificar el impacto en la mortalidad, calidad de vida y costos atribuibles al tabaquismo por enfermedad cardiovascular, cerebrovascular y pulmonar obstructiva crónica, neumonía y diez neoplasias. Se modeló el efecto de diferentes escenarios de aumento de precio en el consumo de tabaco y su impacto en los ámbitos sanitario y económico. Resultados En Argentina, se pueden atribuir 44 851 muertes, 20 620 diagnósticos de cáncer, 14 405 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 68 100 hospitalizaciones por enfermedad cardiovascular por año al tabaquismo. Cada año se pierden 998 881 años de vida por muerte prematura y discapacidad. El costo de tratar los problemas de salud atribuibles asciende a 33 mil millones de pesos argentinos (ARS). Los impuestos al tabaco llegan a cubrir solo 67,3% del gasto. Si Argentina aumentara el precio de los cigarrillos en 50%, en los próximos 10 años se podrían evitar 25 557 muertes, 42 560 eventos cardiovasculares y 11 222 cánceres y se obtendría un beneficio económico de 122 mil millones de ARS por ahorro de costos sanitarios y aumento de la recaudación impositiva (1 USD = 8,8096 ARS). Conclusiones La carga de enfermedad y el costo para el sistema de salud atribuibles al tabaquismo son muy elevados en Argentina. Un aumento de los impuestos al cigarrillo podría tener importantes beneficios sanitarios y económicos.

ABSTRACT Objective Evaluate burden of disease associated with tobacco use in Argentina and estimate health and economic impacts of cigarette price increases through taxes. Methods A microsimulation model was used to quantify smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; pneumonia; and ten cancers. Modeling was done for effect of different price increase scenarios on tobacco use and their impact on health and economics. Results In Argentina, 44 851 deaths, 20 620 cancer diagnoses, 14 405 strokes, and 68 100 hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking every year. Every year, 998 881 years of life are lost from premature death and disability. The cost of treating tobacco-attributable health problems amounts to 33 billion Argentine pesos (ARS). Tobacco taxes only cover 67.3% of this expense. If Argentina increases cigarettes prices by 50% in the next 10 years, 25 557 deaths, 42 560 cardiovascular events, and 11 222 cancers could be prevented, with an economic benefit of 122 billion ARS from savings on health costs and from increasing tax revenues (1 US$ = 8.8096 ARS). Conclusions Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Argentina. An increase in cigarette taxes could have considerable health and economic benefits.

[Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru]. / Carga de enfermedad por tabaquismo e impacto potencial del incremento de precios de cigarrillos en el Perú.

OBJECTIVES: . To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. MATERIALS AND METHODS.: A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. RESULTS: . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. CONCLUSIONS: . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

[Cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent vaccine against human papilloma virus in Argentina based on a dynamic transmission model]. / Costo-efectividad de la vacuna tetravalente contra VPH en Argentina, a partir de un modelo dinámico de transmisión.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) in Argentina from the health system perspective. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was used to estimate the impact of the vaccine on the incidence of cervical cancer, warts, and other HPV related diseases; in quality adjusted life years (QALYs); and in healthcare costs. RESULTS: Vaccination could reduce the risk of cervical cancer by 60% and by 67% the risk of genital warts. Compared to a non-vaccine scenario, the immunization strategy showed an incremental benefit of 0.00234 QALY per person at an incremental cost of US$2.36, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1007.55 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of these results. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization with the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-effective intervention in Argentina, and it was far below the threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US$15 009) per QALY gained.

Costo-efectividad de la vacuna tetravalente contra VPH en Argentina, a partir de un modelo dinámico de transmisión / Cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent vaccine against human papilloma virus in Argentina based on a dynamic transmission model

Objetivo. Evaluar la costo-efectividad (CE) de la vacuna tetravalente contra el virus de papiloma humano (VPH) en Argentina, desde la perspectiva del sistema de salud. Material y métodos. Se utilizó un modelo dinámico de transmisión para estimar el impacto en la incidencia de cáncer de cuello uterino (Cacu), verrugas y otras lesiones, en los años de vida ajustados por calidad (AVAC) y en costos sanitarios. Resultados. La vacuna podría reducir en 60% el riesgo de muerte por Cacu y en 67% el de padecer verrugas genitales. Comparada con no vacunar, la estrategia de vacunación mostró un beneficio incremental promedio de 0.00234 AVAC por persona a un costo incremental de 2.36 dólares, con una CE de 1007.55 dólares por AVAC ganado. Los resultados demostraron ser robustos en el análisis de sensibilidad. Conclusiones. La inmunización resultaría costo-efectiva, con una CE inferior a un producto interno bruto per cápita (15 009 dólares) por AVAC ganado.

Objective. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) in Argentina from the health system perspective. Materials and methods. A dynamic transmission model was used to estimate the impact of the vaccine on the incidence of cervical cancer, warts, and other HPV related diseases; in quality adjusted life years (QALYs); and in healthcare costs. Results. Vaccination could reduce the risk of cervical cancer by 60% and by 67% the risk of genital warts. Compared to a non-vaccine scenario, the immunization strategy showed an incremental benefit of 0.00234 QALY per person at an incremental cost of US$2.36, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1007.55 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of these results. Conclusions. Immunization with the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-effective intervention in Argentina, and it was far below the threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US$15 009) per QALY gained.

Decision-making impact on adjuvant chemotherapy allocation in early node-negative breast cancer with a 21-gene assay: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk stratification based on results provided by a 21-gene assay (Oncotype DX(®)) in early stage breast cancer can help optimize hormone therapy (HT) and/or chemotherapy (CT) decisions. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of decision impact (DI) and net change in CT use before and after assay results, both in the whole studies' population and by recurrence risk score (RS) strata. A systematic search of studies with prospective data collection reported physician's decision on treatment allocation in early stage node-negative breast cancer was performed. DI reflects the proportion of patients whose management was changed, and net change focuses on CT change. A random-effects model is reported. Fifteen studies (N = 2229) met our inclusion criteria: 50.09, 37.35, and 13.38 % of patients with low, intermediate, and high RS. Treatment decision changed in 29.5 % (95 % CI 26.29-32.86). Net reduction of CT use was 12 % (8-17 %). It was 16 % (12.00-19.00) in the low RS group, 0 % (-3.00 to 3.00) in the intermediate RS group, and increased by 2 % (-1.00 to 3.00) in the high RS group. Use of a 21-gene assay showed a significant impact on treatment decisions. From 100 women tested, 30 could have their treatment optimized, and 12 could avoid CT. Its main effects consist of sparing chemotherapy in low risk patients and slightly increasing it in the high risk category. DI could be higher in selected patient populations with greater uncertainty regarding initial treatment decisions.

Carga de enfermedad atribuible al tabaquismo en Chile / Disease burden attributable to smoking in Chile

Objetivo: El objetivo inicial del proyecto, comenzado en el año 2005, fue seleccionar y desarrollar el marco metodológico más adecuado, así como elaborar un modelo económico común, con el fin de estimar la carga de enfermedad relacionada con el tabaquismo y la costo-efectividad de las intervenciones para controlar la epidemia del tabaco en América Latina.En este reporte se presentan los detalles del modelo económico, el proceso de calibración y validación para adecuarlo a la realidad de Chile y los resultados de carga de enfermedad atribuible al tabaquismo, medida tanto en términos de salud como económicos. Materiales e Métodos: Se describen a continuación los siguientes puntos relacionados con el desarrollo y utilización del modelo económico: 1) Etapa inicial de diagnóstico de situación, 2) Descripción del modelo, 3) Metodología utilizada para la selección de fuentes de información e incorporación de parámetros, 4) Proceso de calibración y validación, 5) Estimación de carga de enfermedad, 6) Aspectos metodológicos de los datos epidemiológicos considerados, y 7) Características de la información de costos de atención médica requerida para el modelo. Conclusión: En Chile el tabaquismo es responsable de una importante cantidad de muertes prematuras, enfermedad y costos sanitarios. El mayor peso está dado por las enfermedades cardiovasculares, la enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el cáncer de pulmón. Su impacto en la mortalidad y en la calidad de vida es responsable en forma directa de la pérdida de 428.588 años de vida (por muerte prematura y discapacidad) cada año y explica el 18,5% de todas las muertes que se producen en el país. El tabaquismo genera además un costo directo anual de más de 1 billón de pesos chilenos. Es esperable que los resultados de este estudio contribuyan a tomar conciencia sobre los efectos del tabaco y sean un soporte para que los responsables de las políticas puedan llevar adelante intervenciones para reducir su consumo, lograr la implementación de mayores impuestos al tabaco e instalar las políticas de control promovidas por el Convenio Marco de la Organización Mundial de la Salud para el Control del Tabaco (CMCT-OMS).